What does the conflict in the Middle East mean for UK energy bills?
In the last few weeks, you may have seen news about energy prices going up due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The global production supply of oil and gas has been disrupted, which has caused wholesale gas prices to surge.
While this spike has been significant, it’s important to keep it in context. Wholesale prices are still well below the levels seen during the energy crisis following the invasion of Ukraine, when costs reached record highs.
What’s going to happen with my energy tariff prices?
If you are on our Standard Variable tariff (SVT), the earliest you’d see the recent wholesale market spikes impact your energy bills is July. This is because the price cap for the period 1st April until 30th June has already been set.
SVT prices will go down by around £117¹ on 1st April 2026, reflecting measures introduced by the UK Government in the 2025 Autumn Budget to help reduce energy bills.
If wholesale prices continue to remain high, then this could affect the price cap from July 2026 onwards.
What if I’m already on a fixed tariff?
If you’re already on a fixed tariff, you’re fully protected. You’ll continue to pay the same unit rates until the end of your fixed term, regardless of changes in wholesale prices.
We’ll be in touch closer to the end of your tariff to let you know the best deals we have available.
Why does this affect the price or availability of new fixed price tariffs?
When energy suppliers launch new fixed price tariffs, they are buying the energy for the entire duration of the new tariff at the wholesale energy price at that time. This means that when wholesale prices spike, energy suppliers are paying much more for the energy for these tariffs, which then feeds through to the price they need to charge for them. Our current fixed price tariffs are around £300 higher than they were before the war began, reflecting the increased costs of energy in relation to the prices before this current crisis (as of 25th March).
Should I fix my energy prices?
Right now we don’t know how long the increase to the wholesale cost of energy could last, and we can’t say for certain how it’ll affect your energy bills long-term.
If you already signed up to a fixed price tariff before the conflict started then it’s likely that you’re on a lower price than you’d pay in today’s market, which means you should stay on your existing fixed tariff for now.
How we’re helping our customers save on their energy
Tariffs aren’t the only way you could save with ScottishPower. Over half a million customers are already signed up to Power Saver² and saving money by shifting their electricity use away from peak times to times when there’s less demand on the grid.
We’ve listened to our customers who wanted more flexibility to save, and not just at weekends, so Power Savers can now get 8 one-hour slots of cheaper electricity³ at selected times throughout the whole week.
Looking ahead
At the moment, there’s no forecast available for energy prices beyond October 2026, this is because predictions change frequently as new data arrives.
While recent wholesale price movements are worth watching, they don’t automatically translate into higher bills — particularly in the short term. In the meantime, we’ll keep this page up-to-date with the latest developments
1
The £117 yearly decrease is based on the difference between Ofgem’s price cap for 1st January 2026 (£1,758) and the new price cap from 1st April 2026 (£1,641). The change to what you pay every month will depend on how much energy you use.
2
Our Power Saver Offer events are part of our Power Saver service. You must be a ScottishPower electricity customer with an online account, a communicating smart meter and consent to sharing half-hourly readings with us to participate in the Power Saver Offer. Exclusions apply. See Power Saver Offer Terms and Conditions.
3
Electricity used will be charged at your normal unit rate, and you will later have your bill, or meter if you are a PAYG customer, credited for the energy used during your chosen slots. Each day is divided into hourly slots, with a 50% or 20% discount rating applied to selected slots (50% slots are available 98 hours per week, 20% slots are available 50 hours per week). Credit is calculated depending on the rating of your chosen slots (excluding VAT) and appears as ‘Power Saver Credit’ on your bill or statement. The VAT is calculated on your original electricity charges before the credit is applied, meaning the VAT amount will not reduce in line with the credit. Your daily standing charge will be charged at your normal rate. Eligibility criteria, exclusions, and T&Cs apply.
Last updated: 14 April 2026